Scott Rasmussen says Trump's current path to victory requires winning a 'Blue Wall' state

Pollster Scott Rasmussen on Friday said current polls show former President Donald Trump having "the edge" in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, but that he would need one of the "blue wall" states in order to secure victory in November.

The election is considered too close to call this far out, with the election coming down to seven critical swing states. Those states consist of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The three "blue wall states" are Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

"Looking at the latest data... If the election were held today, [Donald Trump] would likely win," Rasmussen said in a post to X. "Trump has edge in key swing states of GA, NC, [and] AZ. That would get him to 262 Electoral College votes. He would then need to win just one of the three Blue Wall states."

Rasmussen said Vice President Kamala Harris would need to "pull the political equivalent of an inside straight," which means a clean sweep of the blue wall states, in order to win the election. 

The Napolitan Institute warned on Friday that one of Trump's biggest threats is voter turnout, especially in swing states like North Carolina, where voters could be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Helene. Bad weather, such as blizzards in Northern states, could also negatively impact voter turnout, which would likely hurt Trump more than Harris.

The group also warned that some polls might underestimate Harris' appeal, which could bring more voters to the polls than expected.

Misty Severi is an evening news reporter for Just The News. You can follow her on X for more coverage.