Republican representatives managed to narrowly pass a modified continuing resolution through the House on Tuesday, putting focus on the Senate as both sides of the aisle will have to weigh how the public would perceive a shutdown and who will face the blame.

The Tuesday afternoon vote saw 217 lawmakers vote in favor and 213 oppose the continuing resolution. Though it would keep most funding at current levels, it increased defense spending by $6 billion, added the same sum for veterans’ health care, gave $10 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and marginally lowered non-defense spending.

To become law, the bill will need to clear the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support the plan if all Republicans favor it. But. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is a hard "no," putting the threshold for passage at eight Democrats. That’s where the blame game comes in. Typically, Republicans have been wary of causing a shutdown due to fears of the public blaming them.

Fear of blame drives Republican unity

Some polling data has suggested that Republicans' fears of being blamed for a shutdown are well-founded. Fifty-five percent of registered voters expressed support for the proposal, including 79% of Republicans, a Napolitan News Survey conducted Monday revealed. Just 29% opposed the plan while 17% were unsure.

Prior to the Tuesday vote, Vice President JD Vance was on Capitol Hill to whip Republican votes after Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., announced his opposition to the plan.

“We already lost one vote, we can’t lose another,” Vance told House Republicans, according to Politico. He further warned lawmakers that the GOP would likely face the blame for a shutdown and lose support from voters on other issues.

Trump, for his part, sent a clear message to lawmakers with his support for a primary challenge to Massie over his opposition to the continuing resolution. Massie has previously survived a MAGA-aligned, Trump-backed primary challenge, though other lawmakers may not be so successful at defying the president.

“Congressman Thomas Massie, of beautiful Kentucky, is an automatic “NO” vote on just about everything, despite the fact that he has always voted for Continuing Resolutions in the past. HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED, and I will lead the charge against him. He’s just another GRANDSTANDER, who’s too much trouble, and not worth the fight. He reminds me of Liz Cheney before her historic, record breaking fall (loss!). The people of Kentucky won’t stand for it, just watch,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Johnson: "They’re willing to do anything to stop Trump"

House Speaker Mike Johnson, for his part, went on the offensive ahead of the vote, hoping to pin the blame for a shutdown on the Democrats by highlighting prior statements opposing such a move from the party’s prominent lawmakers.

“Democrats have railed against government shutdowns. But now they’re supporting one. What’s changed? They’re willing to do ANYTHING to stop President Trump from implementing his agenda,” Johnson posted, along with a video of Democrats expressing their opposition to a shutdown. Featured in the video were former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and others.

“We believe in government, we want to keep government open. A shutdown is very serious,” Pelosi said in the clip.

Johnson further turned up the heat by pointing to the opposition party’s low approval ratings, saying "If our Democratic colleagues want to increase their 21% approval rating with the American public, they ought to start by doing the right thing by keeping the government open.” He made the remarks during a March 3 weekly GOP press conference.

Dems fear a permanent shutdown

Some Democrats have expressed concerns that Trump’s creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) changed the calculus of a government shutdown to a considerable degree. Namely, as Elon Musk moves to drastically downsize waste and abuse in the federal government, a lack of funding from Congress could help him eliminate much more of the bureaucracy than a downsized funding package would.

Musk “is shutting down parts of the government already,” Sen. Mark Kelly, R-Ariz., said, according to The Hill. “Who knows what he’s going to want to open back up? … That is a huge risk.  Maybe they decide that entire government agencies don’t need to exist anymore.” “The Republicans are already shutting down government. We need a short-term CR so that we can get our funding,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., told the same publication.

It remains to be seen whether such anxieties will prove sufficient to get the spending package over the line. Should they fail, a shutdown will take effect at 12:00 a.m. on Saturday.