Democratic lawmaker leads Kari Lake by three points in Arizona Senate race: Poll

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is leading his opponent, Republican Kari Lake, by three points in the race to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate as of Thursday, according to a new poll.

The poll, which was published by AARP, found 48% of respondents favored Gallego versus 45% that preferred Lake. Six percent were still undecided. Although Gallego is leading in the survey, the margin of error is four points, which makes the responses a statistical tie. 

Gallego's lead is helped by Lake, who was the Republican nominee for Arizona governor in 2022, having a higher unfavorability rating than her Democratic opponent. Only 35% of respondents have a very favorable view of Lake, whereas 49% have a very unfavorable view. While Gallego has a 34% very favorable rating, just 24% have a very unfavorable view, according to the survey. 

Lake is also perceived as a more controversial candidate among her own party than Gallego, because she tends to skew further right than mainstream Republicans. Roughly 86% of Republicans and 6% of Democrats back Lake, while 93% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans support Gallego. The congressman is also more favored among Independents, with 47% preferring Gallego and 39% preferring Lake.

“There is a 27-point gender gap among voters 50+, with women supporting Gallego by 12-points and men voting Lake by 15,” AARP noted in the poll.

The AARP poll was conducted between May 28 and June 4, and surveyed 1,358 likely voters, according to The Hill.