How the next Pope will be chosen, and who it could be

The Papal Conclave will gather in Rome to select the next head of the Catholic Church, likely from among the world’s Cardinals.

Published: April 21, 2025 1:46pm

Updated: April 21, 2025 4:59pm

With the death of Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals – a body of senior Church leaders – will begin the process of choosing a new head of the Catholic Church by gathering in a Conclave.

Several names have emerged as the Papabili – those Cardinals considered most likely to be elected Pope by Vatican experts, scholars, and journalists. Though any male, baptized Catholic can be elected Pope, historically the college has selected one among themselves. The last Pope elected from outside the body was Urban VI in 1379.

The conclave is expected to begin within 20 days, but could start sooner if all the necessary Cardinals arrive early to the Vatican. The cardinals will then gather in the famous Sistine Chapel, cut off from the outside world, and cast ballots for their preferred candidates. A Cardinal requires two-thirds of the votes to be elected the Supreme Pontiff of the Catholic Church.

The College of Cardinals Report, an independent team of Catholic journalists and researchers, lists 22 current cardinals as the most likely papal candidates and aims to “equip readers with a detailed knowledge of the cardinals” and the current Papabili.

However, “predicting the next Pope is notoriously precarious, and he may be none of those we propose,” College of Cardinals Report says. Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, who went on to become Pope Francis, was not on many lists of likely candidates in 2013.

Here are five of the 22 current Cardinals who could become the next Pope.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, as Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, has risen in public prominence following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas terrorists in Gaza. In the wake of the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, Cardinal Pizzaballa famously offered to exchange himself for children captured as hostages by the terrorist group.

Cardinal Pizzaballa was born in Italy and entered the Franciscan order, named after St. Francis of Assisi from whom Pope Francis took his papal name. He has lived and worked in the Holy Land since 1990 and attended Hebrew University of Jerusalem, eventually becoming an assistant professor of Biblical Hebrew and Judaism at two Catholic universities in the Israel.

In May 2004, Pizzaballa was appointed 167th Custos of the Holy Land, which oversees the Roman Catholic sites throughout the Holy Land.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Cardinal Pietro Parolin currently serves as the Vatican’s secretary of state and is seen as a more theologically conservative candidate. He has served as a diplomat for the Vatican since the beginning of his career, taking assignments in Nigeria, Mexico, Spain, Italy and other countries.

He played a major role in negotiations between the Holy See and the Communist Chinese government, leading to the controversial and widely criticized 2018 provisional agreement under which the Vatican recognized some bishops appointed by the Chinese government without the Pope’s prior consent.

Cardinal Luis Tagle

Cardinal Luis Tagle, head of the Vatican’s evangelization office and former Archbishop of Manila, Philippines, is widely considered to be the “Asian Francis,” and holds similar views and philosophies to Pope Francis.

He has taken conservative stances against a Filipino reproductive health bill that he said contained anti-life and anti-family polices and has spoken out strongly against abortion. He has also taken strong positions in support of environmental protection and social justice.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline is the Archbishop of Marseille, France has dedicated himself to the issues of migration and interreligous dialogue stemming from his upbringing as a ethnic Frenchman born in Algeria, which was then controlled by France. When he was young, his family was expelled from the country and fled back to France. He is considered similar in philosophy to Pope Francis but has not taken a clear stand on doctrinal issues facing the church, such as women’s ordination, priestly celibacy and communion for remarried Catholics.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungo

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungo is the Archbishop of Kinsasha – the largest Roman Catholic diocese on earth – in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He holds a prominent position of influence throughout Africa, and specifically political influence in his home country of the DRC as an outspoken critic of the government of President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo.

He is a staunch defender of church doctrine and practice and resisted Pope Francis’ controversial Vatican declaration, which allowed priests to give blessings to those in same-sex relationships. The declaration did not give priests the authority to bless the relationship itself, only the individuals involved.

If selected, the cardinal would be the first Pope elected from Africa, a continent where Catholicism is growing substantially as affiliation with the religion declines elsewhere, like Europe.

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