Harris’s $1 billion war chest can’t buy a winning message

Vice President Kamala Harris has reportedly raised as much as $1 billion since taking over the Democratic ticket, with much of that sum fueling major ad buys. Yet the dead-even state of the race and online rebuke of her myriad messaging efforts suggests she may not be receiving her money’s worth.

President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid in late July. Between that date and the end of August, the Harris campaign made a total of 33 disbursements under the description “media buy” or some derivation thereof, totaling $136.6 million.

The campaign raised more than $200 million by the end of July and had cleared $500 million by the end of August. As of mid-September, the campaign had more than $400 million in cash on hand. By contrast, the Trump campaign announced a $130 million haul for all of August, roughly on par with Harris campaign’s overall ad expenditure for that period. It had roughly $295 million in cash on hand at the same time.

The Harris campaign meanwhile, has reportedly spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars on advertising since early September, more than doubling such expenditures from the Trump campaign. 

And yet, the overwhelming consensus is that Trump is the current favorite to win the election. Despite a substantive gap in fundraising and expenditures on advertising, the ex-commander-in-chief currently has a 59.5% chance of winning the White House in November, according to Polymarket. RealClearPolitics, moreover, assigns Harris a 1.7% average lead, but projects Trump to win 302 electoral votes.

So, with the race moving in the direction of the candidate with the smaller war chest and lower advertising expenditures, the question remains. Why hasn’t Harris been able to move the needle in the other direction?

The Trump campaign offered one explanation.

Trump campaign memo

In a memo circulated over the weekend, Trump campaign senior advisors Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, as well as pollster Tony Fabrizio, suggested that the substance of Harris’s messaging was to blame in that she had failed to persuade voters she represented a genuine “change” from the presidency of Joe Biden.

“Since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent $241,407,417 on trackable media spend compared to only $104,774,939 paid by the Trump campaign,” they noted.

“Given the vast amount of money her campaign has spent and the willingness of the MSM to give her a pass at every turn, how is it possible that she's gone backward in our internal and public polling?” the trio went on. “Because she can't convince the voters that she is ‘the change agent’ in the race, that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people's financial situation, the bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job.”

Pro-Harris 'real man' ad

While the vice president has indeed struggled to distinguish herself from her former running mate, even admitting that there was “not a thing that comes to mind” when pressed on what she might have done differently during Biden’s tenure, there is reason to suggest that her messaging problem goes beyond a mere crisis of self-definition.

A pro-Harris ad attracted widespread mockery this month over its seemingly farcical portrayal of masculine “real men”. Though not a direct product of the campaign, the ad appeared to be representative of the women-centric messaging the campaign of “Momala” has embraced.

Featuring men in traditionally masculine settings such as a garage, ranch, gym, and the flatbed of a pickup truck, the ad showed them attempt to establish their masculine credentials using questionable metrics, such as a claim to “eat carburetors for breakfast” and the assertion that “I ain’t afraid of bears.”

They subsequently claim they are “man enough to support women” and make a renewed series of odd protestations of their masculinity, including a willingness to “be emotional in front of my wife, in front of my kids, in front of my horse.” They then state what films or musicals make them cry and say they are “man enough” to help a woman become president.

The ad went viral on social media, with one poster dubbing it the “cringiest political ad ever” and others seeing the messaging as indicative of the Harris camp’s inability to understand or effectively reach out to straight male voters.

“Kamala’s ‘men’ aren’t real men. Most don’t have enough muscle to farm, build, or carry groceries in the house for women,” wrote Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., in response. “They will get you pregnant, abandon you, and tell you to abort your baby. REAL MEN take care of and protect women and children.”

Walz’s hunting trip

The messaging problem seems to go beyond conventional ad spots, however, and extends to the campaign’s broader approach to publicity and outreach.

Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., for instance, has attempted to portray himself as a conventional “man’s man” and made a highly publicized hunting trip in recent days with reporters in tow.

But some such attempts, despite heavy promotion from the Harris campaign, appear to have backfired. Indeed, in one viral video, Walz appears to struggle to load his shotgun, drawing rebuke in light of his past statements to have handled “weapons of war.”

Indeed, the Trump campaign reshared C-SPAN footage of Walz’s hunting trip, calling it a “poorly orchestrated photo op.”

Trump’s ads are ‘effective’ with a key voter bloc

Trump has recently touted his growing support from black men, a traditionally Democratic leaning constituency that he has heavily courted in each election cycle. Some of his efforts appear to be bearing fruit as polling shows a surge in support and prominent members of that community are pointing to the effectiveness of his ads.

Podcast host Charlamagne Tha God last month went viral in a clip in which he acclaimed a pro-Trump ad highlighting Harris’s support for taxpayer funding for sex changes for prisoners.

“That ad was impactful,” he said, conceding that it may have been more effective because it ran during a football game. “I was like, Hell no, I don't want my taxpayer dollars going to that. That ad was effective."

Trump’s campaign later used that footage in an ad reasserting the claim and claiming “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”

Harris scrambling to shore up support

Seemingly losing the messaging war, Harris is pulling out all the stops to solidify her support ahead of the election and stop the trickle of Democratic voters moving towards Trump.

To that end, she has deployed a number of heavy-hitting surrogates, such as former President Barack Obama, who effectively shamed young black men for considering Trump during an event in Michigan last week.

“You’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down?” Obama said, according to CNN. “That’s not acceptable.”

On Monday, moreover, she announced an “Opportunity Agenda” that featured a proposal for 1 million loans of up to $20,000 for black entrepreneurs. The plan would see the government partner with willing lenders to offer the fully-forgivable sums.

Other, last-minute efforts include her planned appearance on Fox News this week and talk of a possible appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, hoping to win male voters.