Only hours after being sworn into office, President Donald Trump carried out a series of executive orders terminating much of former President Joe Biden’s climate agenda, which includes declaring an “energy emergency.” 

The breadth of the decisions may well be the most dramatic shift in U.S. energy policy since the response to the ban on oil exports from Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 1973. 

Biden had signed a number of executive orders after being sworn into office, such as adding the U.S. back into the Paris Agreement, a nonbinding international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions to keep temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. From there, much of his climate agenda rolled out in a series of rulemaking actions over the past four years, including appliance efficiency standards, a pause on liquified natural gas export permits, and the EPA’s power plant rule. 

Trump’s “energy emergency” includes support for the mining of critical minerals for national security, emergency approvals for energy resources on public lands and facilitating the building of energy infrastructure. In a separate executive order, Trump set forth rules for developing energy resources in Alaska. 

Another order encourages exploration and production on offshore drilling, a revocation of one of Biden’s final anti-fossil fuel actions. The order also rescinds many of Biden’s climate-related executive orders. Trump also pulled the U.S. back out of the Paris Agreement. 

Hindsight

Jeff Reynolds, senior editor for Restoration News, said that Trump’s abrupt and unambiguous departure from Biden’s climate agenda may be the result of hindsight. While Trump understood the importance of energy and a friendly regulatory environment, Reynolds said, he was perhaps more patient in his first term. But that was before seeing how far the left would go once it had Biden in the White House. 

“Now he knows where the bodies are buried, and he’s ready to take a meat axe to everything that got in his way the first time,” Reynolds said. 

Trump’s deluge of pro-fossil fuel executive orders demonstrates he intends to make good on “drill, baby drill” campaign promises, but David Blackmon, an energy analyst who publishes his work on his “Energy Absurdities” Substack, told Just the News that it’s unlikely the U.S. will see increases in production. 

Robert Rapier, a chemical engineer and editor in chief of Shale Magazine, said in an interview last month, low gas prices don’t encourage more production. Oil prices had been hovering at around $70 per barrel since September, which is a point where, Rapier said, oil companies weren’t likely to make investments in more production. Since New Year’s Day, prices have risen over $70 per barrel, but they will have to stay there for some time before producers consider increases. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts production rising only slightly higher than consumption, with lower prices through 2026. 

Lawfare

The other challenge to implementing Trump’s “energy emergency” is a wave of expected lawsuits from environmental groups, which have enormous resources at their disposal. Various groups, including EarthJustice, whose motto is “Earth needs a good lawyer,” have issued statements condemning Trump’s orders. 

Carole Holley, Earthjustice’s managing attorney for the Alaska Office, suggested in a statement that the group would seek legal action over Trump’s actions. 

“The Trump administration’s agenda for Alaska would destroy valuable habitats and subsistence hunting and fishing grounds while furthering the climate crisis. EarthJustice and its clients will not stand idly by while Trump once again forces a harmful industry-driven agenda on our state for political gain and the benefit of a wealthy few,” Holly said. 

There’s also no guarantee that the next president will be as friendly toward oil and gas as Trump. Just as easily as Trump can sign executive orders, his successor can do the same. Some experts argue Trump should take steps to prevent another president from overturning his orders. 

For example, Tom Pyle, president of the Institute for Energy Research, told Restoration News that the Paris Agreement could be submitted to the Senate for consideration as a treaty. Due to its costs and obligations, some experts argue it is a treaty requiring two-thirds Senate approval. It would likely fail to get ratified. 

Build, baby, build

Blackmon said that what will likely happen under Trump is investments in infrastructure. 

“I don't think we're going to see a big drilling boom. I think it's going to be more of a ‘build, baby build’ boom. We need a significant amount of additional natural gas pipeline capacity, including new LNG export facilities and the infrastructure that supplies them,” Blackmon said. 

The trend toward refineries shutting down, which has driven up fuel costs, may also reverse, Blackmon said. Besides the regulatory hostility of the Biden administration, ESG pressures have depleted options for financing of fossil fuel projects. 

However, congressional investigation and a series of high-profile lawsuits alleging violations of antitrust laws led banks and investment firms to flee climate groups over the last month. While ESG critics are skeptical that these firms have completely surrendered their anti-fossil fuel agendas, there’s likely less zeal behind it. The firms may also be less likely to coordinate activities and risk being seen as colluding. This could open up more lending options for energy projects. 

While Trump’s executive orders only mentioned coal in its definition of energy resources, some expect that he may work to overturn the EPA’s power plant rule. Should Trump’s nominee to head the EPA, former New York GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, be confirmed, the agency will be led by someone who is expected to align with that goal. 

Likewise, Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.V., and four other GOP representatives, including Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming, relaunched the Congressional Coal Caucus. Among their goals is ending the moratorium on federal coal leasing and rolling back the EPA’s power plant rule. 

However Trump’s abrupt unleashing of American energy plays out, many experts say it will be better for consumers. Reynolds said America’s growth after living under Biden’s climate agenda will be like Trump’s comeback story. 

“Trump was defeated. He was canceled. They threw the entirety of the weight of all of the government against him. And he's come back. His redemption story is one for the ages,” Reynolds said.