'I don’t get it': Polling historian who nailed Trump's 2016 win baffled by his 2024 win

So-called Nostradamus said Harris prevailed in his "Keys to the White House” metric. He frets as Trump victory becomes apparent: "Once democracy’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover."

By Greg Piper

Published: November 6, 2024 2:30pm

An American University historian who became a polling celebrity by correctly predicting Donald Trump's presidential victory in 2016 is flummoxed, and dispirited, by the president-elect's victory this year.

Allan Lichtman, dubbed "Nostradamus" for his prior record using his proprietary "Keys to the White House” metric, did a six-hour livestream with his son Sam as election returns came in Tuesday night, becoming increasingly despondent and "apocalyptic" as the Republican's thumping of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris became clear, the New York Post reports.

"He's got a 200,000 vote lead with 80%" of the votes counted in Pennsylvania, the elder Lichtman said. "His lead is not diminished." Several seconds of silence followed before Sam noted "Michigan's gone red" and that Trump's Pennsylvania lead was growing.

"It's very, very, very difficult," the father said. "I don't get it." Harris was supposed to win eight of the 13 "keys" in his metric, and Trump only three.

With Trump ahead in every swing state as the livestream wrapped up, the elder Lichtman judged "nothing positive" for Harris in the data.

“Oh, the democracy’s gone," he said of an election with massive turnout. "Once democracy’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover. The way to recover is by the dictators losing wars. ... And throughout the 21st century, democracy has been in decline everywhere around the world, and America has now fallen in step. But never give up hope."

Lichtman's last goofed prediction was in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore.

He told X followers to watch his live YouTube show Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern to hear his take on why he was wrong.