Holiday shopping expected to break records again in 2024

Nearly 40% of all Americans planned to shop on Black Friday, to kick off the holiday shopping season.

Holiday sales are already expected to once again break records this year, with the National Retail Federation expecting a total holiday spending of between $979.5 billion to $989 billion in November and December, compared to $955.6 billion in 2023. That is a 3% increase.

Holiday shopping has seen consistent growth every year since 2008, with 2021 seeing the largest jump in a 12% increase from the previous year.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”

While Black Friday and Cyber Monday will see Americans searching out deals both online and in stores, the holiday shopping has already begun, with many retailers starting deals early. Some began as early as mid-October.

Pre-Thanksgiving deals were especially big this year as Thanksgiving was much later in the month, making the holiday shopping season five days shorter than last year.

Online shopping will play a major role in the increase this year, though many Generation Z and millennial shoppers are also expected to use social media for shopping and gift ideas.

In 2023, only 34% of all holiday shopping, or $221.8 billion, was done online. An Adobe report predicts that online sales during this holiday season will see an 8.4% growth over last year, coming in at $240.8 billion.

However, in-store shopping is still the most popular way to shop, especially among older generations.

Retailers are still expressing concern about the economy, though, predicting that consumers may be more budget-conscious this year due to continued inflation.

“Consumers tell us their budgets remain stretched and they’re shopping carefully as they work to overcome the cumulative impact of multiple years of price inflation,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said on an earnings call last week.

Many companies are still expecting a major boost in sales, including Target.

Amazon announced it plans to hire 250,000 holiday workers this season, while Target plans to hire 100,000 seasonal team members.

Even AI will see a boost this holiday season, with 40% of consumers saying they planned to use generative AI to help find the best deals, find specific products online and get brand recommendations.