Early projection adds U.S. House seat for North Carolina

North Carolina population has exceeded an estimated 11 million, remains ninth largest of the 50 states, and is fourth largest in growth for 2023 and 2024.

According to one analysis, it is poised to add another seat in the U.S. House of Representatives at the next decennial reapportionment. The South as a whole is projected to add nine and possibly 10, with California (four), the Blue Wall states (two) and New York (two) taking reductions, the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law says.

In a release, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates North Carolina population on July 1 of this year at 11,046,024. That’s up from 10,439,388 at the last decennial census with a date of April 1, 2020.

California (39.4 million), Texas (31.2 million), Florida (23.3 million), New York (19.8 million), Pennsylvania (13 million), Illinois (12.7 million), Ohio (11.8 million) and Georgia (11.1 million) are larger, the Census Bureau says. Michigan (10.1 million) rounds out the top 10.

From July 1, 2023, to July 1 of this year, the bureau says North Carolina’s estimated gain of 164,835 trails only Texas (562,941), Florida (467,347) and California (232,570). The 1.5% growth percentage is eighth best.

The Brennan Center, consensus considered left-leaning though billing itself as a nonpartisan nonprofit, projects four seats each to be gained by Texas and Florida, with the former possibly getting five. California lost a seat after the 2020 census, a first for the state.

The Brennan analysis reminds half a decade is still ahead, though Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Wisconsin are projected to each lose a seat.

Electoral college votes by state are the equivalent of Senate seats (two for each state) plus House seats. Brennan analysis says a Democrat this year could have won the electoral college by winning states Kamala Harris won, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and the battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin form within the Blue Wall.

In 2032, Brennan says that would not work.

In what came to be considered a toss-up in seven battleground states, Harris infamously lost them all and took a 93-0 whipping in the electoral college as a result. Donald Trump, the nation’s 45th and soon to be 47th president, won the electoral college by 86 votes, 312-226.