A new report from the state Electric Vehicle Coordinating Council reveals that EV sales fell short in 2024, while one analyst argues that the main beneficiary of Washington state’s EV mandates and rebate program so far has been Elon Musk’s Tesla.

The EVCC is tasked with planning the transition of the state’s transportation sector away from fossil fuels and toward electrification, a process driven by various mandates imposed by both the Washington State Legislature, as well as California’s Air Control Board.

Despite ranking second in the nation behind California in terms of overall EV sales, the EVCC report notes that “EV sales were not as high as expected in 2024. Washington's experience reflects national trends, as EV consideration nationally slightly decreased since a peak in 2022.” Currently, EV adoption is behind the goals set in the council’s Transportation Electrification Strategy.

However, the report attributes this to a “market failure” to offer affordable options rather than a lack of consumer interest in EVs.

Per state law, it will be illegal to register a new gasoline-powered vehicle in Washington starting in 2030. Additionally, the Legislature enacted a law tying Washington’s environmental policies to those set by CARB, which includes an Advance Clean Cars II zero emission vehicle standard, which requires automakers to have EVs or zero-emission vehicles as a certain percentage of the vehicles they manufacture until they reach 100% starting in 2035.

According to the report, this standard “is essential for the state's emissions reduction requirements. Without it, in 2030 the state would have an EV adoption rate of 59%, versus 68% with it.” As of 2024, ZEVs made up 20% of production in the second half of 2024.

Other state policies aim to further promote the adoption of EVs through financial incentives. A sales tax exemption is estimated to save EV buyers $52 million during the 2023-25 biennium, with an average $1,000 saved per purchase. However, the report notes “it is unclear how many will choose an EV because of the discount.”

The Department of Commerce also launched a $46 million EV rebate program in August, which provides $2,500 to $9,000 for an EV purchase, with the amount determined by the households income level. According to the council, 6,200 people received a rebate from the program in just 90 days, and 90% of those providing feedback said they would not have purchased an EV without the program. The program also offers $200 a month rebate for an EV lease.

In a recent email to The Center Square, Washington Policy Center Vice President of Research Todd Myer wrote that the result of decreased EV sales “could be increased costs for new cars or that buyers go to states like Idaho without the (ACH) requirement.”

He further noted in recent blog that while EV’s percentage of new passenger vehicle light duty trucks registered in Washington state within the first two months of 2025 was slightly higher than 2024, 21% to 20%, “this is far below the level that is required next year by Washington law requiring that 35 percent of cars sold in Washington be either EV or PHEV [plug-in hybrid electric vehicle] next year. At the current rate of increase, about 25 percent of new cars will meet the requirements next year, about 29 percent below the goal.”

Myers also observed that “the biggest beneficiary of the EV mandate, and the state’s many other EV subsidies, would be Elon Musk and Tesla,” highlighting that Tesla composed 46% of all new EVs registered so far in 2025, while it was 51% in 2024.

“The sales data indicate that unless Washington legislators modify the mandated targets or decouple from California’s rules, Washington car buyers could be facing increased prices or car shortages in the next few years,” he wrote.