Germany’s premiere foreign intelligence agency is “80% to 95%” certain that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan, according to German reports, with the spy agency’s conclusions concealed for years.

The German Federal Intelligence Service, known in German as the Bundesnachrichtendienst or simply the BND, conducted a secret investigation dubbed "Project Saaremaa” targeting Chinese government agencies and scientific institutes, including in Wuhan, according to a joint investigation by German news outlets Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung. 

The BND investigated the origins of SARS-CoV-2 – and analysts at the BND concluded that it was very likely that the pandemic emerged as an accidental lab release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The CIA, under new Director John Ratcliffe, revealed in January that "CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting.” 

The German news outlets wrote that “in Berlin, they are convinced that the BND information contributed to the CIA's cautious adoption of the laboratory theory.” The BND was reportedly not able to share its findings with U.S. intelligence until the end of 2024.

The German agents who captured secretive Chinese data early in the pandemic reportedly sent it along to the BND's Technology and Science Department, reportedly known as "the eggheads” – and the scientists there analyzed the Chinese material in conjunction with publicly available information. 

The outlets said that “the BND is convinced that the coronavirus likely originated in a Chinese laboratory.” The "Probability Index" at the BND reportedly classifies the laboratory leak hypothesis as "likely" with an "80 to 95 percent" level of certainty. The outlets said that, based on public information alone, the BND was 50% to 80% certain of a lab leak, and that the classified Chinese information pushed the assessment even higher.

The German spies who launched the investigation reportedly discovered “unpublished data and internal documents” from the Chinese researchers which led them to their conclusions. 

The German news outlets wrote that this was “Berlin's best-kept secret” for years, and that “it has been under lock and key for five years now, marked ‘Secret’ in deep red.” The outlets said the BND reached its assessment by 2020, and that the BND is more convinced than ever as further evidence has been collected.

The BND reportedly found information on animal experiments and unearthed several scientific studies, including unpublished doctoral theses from 2019 and 2020 which dealt with the impact of coronaviruses on the human brain, with the material reportedly suggesting that “an unusually large amount of knowledge about the supposedly novel virus was available at an unusually early stage.” 

The German spies also reportedly found lax security at the Wuhan lab, careless transportation of virus-infected lab animals, and extreme sloppiness which increased the risk of an accidental release.

The BND reports up to Germany’s Federal Chancellery, which is the executive office of the chancellor of Germany. BND chief Bruno Kahl reportedly presented his agency’s findings to State Secretary Johannes Geismann in 2020, with Federal Chancellery Minister Helge Braun and then-Chancellor Angela Merkel also reportedly getting briefed on the BNS assessment. The German outlets wrote that “the Chancellery decides to do nothing” and that neither the World Health Organization nor the Bundestag, the German federal parliament, were informed. 

The BND’s chief, Kahl, also reportedly informed Chancellery Chief Wolfgang Schmidt of the agency’s findings in 2021.

The BND was reportedly “sworn to secrecy” while the Chancellery blocked the Bundestag from learning what was known about COVID-19’s origins.

Ratcliffe testified to Congress in April 2023 that the CIA and other spy agencies had enough evidence to get off the fence and to join the FBI and Energy Department in concluding that SARS-CoV-2 most likely originated at the Wuhan lab, and hinted that the U.S. intelligence community was holding back because of the significant ramifications such public conclusions would have for the U.S.-China relationship.

Ratcliffe contended in April 2023 that “a lab leak is the only explanation credibly supported by our intelligence, by science, and by common sense” and that “if our intelligence and evidence supporting a lab leak theory was placed side by side with our intelligence and evidence pointing to a naturally occurring ‘spillover’ theory, the lab leak side of the ledger would be long and overwhelming while the ‘spillover’ side would be nearly empty.”

Germany’s Schmidt reportedly spoke with then Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines in May 2023 about the origins of COVID-19. Haines reportedly told Schmidt that she had reviewed the U.S. Energy Department’s assessment and that “there is nothing to it.”

Then-FBI Director Christopher Wray confirmed in 2023 that the FBI has long believed COVID-19 originated at a Chinese government lab, and it was revealed in 2023 that the Energy Department also believed with “low confidence” that the coronavirus started at a Wuhan lab. 

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence under Haines released an assessment in August 2021 also stating that four U.S. spy agencies and the National Intelligence Council believed with “low confidence” that COVID-19 most likely had a natural origin.

The BND was reportedly only allowed to share its findings with the U.S. intelligence community in December 2024 – after President Donald Trump had defeated President Joe Biden in the November 2024 election, and with a new German leader, Friedrich Merz, soon to be taking over the German Chancellery. The German news outlets revealed that their investigation had prompted the Federal Chancellery to inform the Bundestag and the WHO about the BND’s secret conclusions soon.

Scientists consulting with the U.S. government early in the pandemic in 2020 believed COVID-19 originating from a lab in Wuhan was possible or even likely, yet emails indicate Dr. Anthony Fauci and then-NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins worked to shut the hypothesis down. Emails also show Fauci and others “prompted” an influential scientific paper that pushed back on the Wuhan lab leak hypothesis in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Chinese government for years has continued to deflect from the Wuhan lab leak possibility by pushing the baseless conspiracy theory that COVID-19 originated from a U.S. military base. China’s efforts in this regard just got harder.