Budget watchdogs conclude economic growth won't pay for majority of proposed GOP tax cuts

The CRFB said economic growth predicted from the tax package that could reduce revenue from $5 trillion to $11 trillion will not pay for tax cut extensions.

By Nicholas Ballasy

Published: March 8, 2025 10:51pm

Updated: March 9, 2025 8:23am

Budget watchdogs have come to the conclusion that economic growth won't pay for the vast majority of the proposed Republican tax cut package.

The package, which is being crafted using the budget reconciliation process, has not yet been passed by Congress.

"The latest estimates from third-party modelers confirm what we’ve said several times before: economic growth will not pay for tax cut extensions," read a statement from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

"New estimates from the Tax Foundation and Tax Policy Center (TPC) show that extending the portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that either have expired, are phasing down, or will expire at the end of 2025 will not produce nearly enough economic growth to offset their revenue loss," the CRFB added. The TCJA was signed into law by then-President Biden in December of 2017.

The CRFB found the Tax Foundation’s estimate to be "the most optimistic." According to their analysis, "dynamic" economic gains are projected to offset up to 16% of conventional revenue losses from the tax rate reductions or tax benefits expected to be included in the GOP tax bill.

GOP targets $2 trillion spending cut over 10 years

The TPC concluded that dynamic gains could offset only 6% of “conventional revenue losses," according to CRFB. The CRFB has estimated that the tax package could cost from $5 trillion up to $11 trillion over a 10 year period. The size of spending reductions to offset the tax changes has not yet been determined.

President Trump and the new Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, are working with Republicans in Congress to find areas to cut in the federal budget. Republicans are attempting to hit a $2 trillion spending cut target over 10 years, according to the budget resolution that recently passed.

Congressional Republicans are also currently debating spending levels for the rest of FY2025. The GOP-led Congress is considering passing a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) without changing spending levels to avoid a government shutdown before March 14.