Vance’s election to VP spot opens a Senate seat, and could shape the upper chamber

With Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, now the vice president-elect, his Senate seat is poised to become vacant, leaving it to Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to appoint a replacement. That process is sure to see some jockeying from different Senate factions and a handful of would-be senators who lost out to Trump picks in the last few primaries.

Vance won election to his seat in the 2022 midterms after securing now-President-elect Donald Trump’s endorsement in a crowded Republican primary. Republican Bernie Moreno secured Trump’s support for his 2024 bid and he managed to oust Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, this week. Brown, the incumbent, has held the seat since 2006. Moreno managed to defeat state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Ohio, and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose in primaries, but both could be eyeing Vance’s seat.

DeWine made headlines this election cycle amid media frenzy over Trump’s claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating local pets. The governor distanced himself from those accusations. "This is something that came up on the internet and the internet can be quite crazy sometimes," DeWine said, brushing off the story.

Generally regarded as a moderate, the governor drew intense conservative backlash over his refusal to sign a ban on gender-related care for minors that led to the legislature overriding him. The state of his relationship with Trump and Vance remains somewhat unclear, but his own inclinations may complicate efforts to replace Vance with another Trump-aligned voice.

Early opponent of Ukraine aid package

A political outsider, Vance had not held elected office before securing his Senate seat and he emerged as something of a dissident from the mainline Republicans in the camp of then-Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He was notably one of the few Republicans to oppose a combined foreign aid package to Ukraine, Israel, and the Middle East.

With McConnell planning to step down from leadership, the Conference appears poised for a shift in character. Sens. John Thune, S.D.; John Cornyn, Texas; and Rick Scott, Fla.; are vying for the gavel and Vance will likely remain in his post through the duration of that contest. While Thune and Cornyn are generally regarded as conventional Republicans in McConnell’s mold, Scott has the backing of a cadre of Trump-aligned conservatives.

Regardless of the outcome of the leadership contest, the Senate is poised to lose a voice for reserved foreign policy in Vance, though he could return in his new capacity as president of the Senate. Here’s who could fill his shoes:

Frank LaRose

The Ohio Secretary of State unsuccessfully sought the party nomination in 2024 and placed third behind Moreno and Dolan. He nonetheless currently stands as the highest ranking Ohio Republican who ran in the last Senate cycle.

LaRose has emerged as a leading election integrity figure in the Republican Party, working to clear the voter rolls of non-citizens and to curtail ballot harvesting efforts.

Matt Dolan

Dolan placed second behind Moreno in the primary and was a favorite among establishment Republicans. He previously served as assistant attorney general of Ohio and has held his current post since 2017. 

DeWine supported his 2024 candidacy during the primary. That endorsement pitted him against Trump, who had already endorsed Moreno.

Dolan has at least some vocal opponents in the pro-Trump world. After Trump announced Vance as his vice presidential pick, heavyweight conservative outlet The Federalist released an op-ed urging DeWine not to tap Dolan should Vance become vice president.

That outlet suggested DeWine look at either Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, or tech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy to fill the post.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ramaswamy has previously expressed openness to filling Vance’s seat, though he does not appear to have spoken about the prospect in recent months. He briefly attracted speculation as a potential VP pick for Trump, which ended with Vance’s selection. He is reportedly under consideration for an unspecified cabinet post as well.

The tech mogul stormed onto the conservative political stage with his longshot campaign for president, during which he ran in opposition to “neoconservative” foreign policy hawks such as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

In that respect at least, Ramaswamy would continue Vance’s legacy in the Senate as a force for reserved action on the world stage. At least one prominent conservative voice has already called on DeWine to offer the slot to Ramaswamy. “JD Vance’s Senate seat in Ohio is open. Vivek Ramaswamy is from Ohio. Mike DeWine needs to do the right thing and give him the first right of refusal for that seat,” conservative political strategist Joey Mannarino posted this week.

Jim Jordan

A stalwart Trump ally, Jordan was a reluctant opposition figure to Kevin McCarthy for the Speaker’s gavel in early 2023, with several of the California Republican’s detractors backing him despite his stated disinterest in the post. Jordan has served in Congress since 2007, and helped found the House Freedom Caucus.

He ultimately opted to seek the Speaker's post after McCarthy’s ouster, but failed to secure the support of the conference to take the job. He has served as head of the House Judiciary Committee in the current Congress and spearheaded the Weaponization panel’s investigation into the politicization of the federal government.

The Weaponization Committee on Thursday released its latest document requests, stating “Our censorship investigation isn’t going anywhere. All gas. No brakes.”

If that statement is any indication, Jordan isn’t going anywhere.