New Hampshire, North Carolina governor’s races stand out in less competitive year

In addition to casting ballots for federal elections, many voters across the United States are poised to vote on their state’s chief executive and state legislatures, the primary drivers of policies that impact voters much closer to home. 

While changes in control of state legislatures are likely to follow national trends, like the Tea Party wave in 2010 that swept Republicans into a dominant position at the state-level, most gubernatorial races this year are not expected to be competitive. 

Out of the 11 states holding elections for governor this year, only two are widely considered to be competitive: New Hampshire and North Carolina. 

North Carolina 

In North Carolina, scandal-plagued Republican Lt. Gov Mark Robinson is facing off against longtime Democratic state legislator and Attorney General Joshua Stein. 

Robinson, who has consistently trailed his Democratic opponent by about 10 points since August, has faced multiple scandals during his campaign, including media reports that he allegedly once described himself as a “black NAZI” on a pornography forum on which he also made crude posts and an admission in a pro-life campaign ad that he and his wife had an abortion “30 years ago.” 

After the crude posts allegedly written by Robinson emerged, several senior campaign staff resigned including a campaign adviser, the campaign manager and finance directors. Robinson has denied the allegations. 

Since the media reports, he has slipped slightly in the polls, sometimes polling as much as 20 points behind Stein. 

Stein, who currently serves as the state’s attorney general and has run a relatively quiet campaign in contrast to his opponent, has focused on his support for public education and abortion access. 

Both are running to replace current Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term limited. Though the state has a Democratic governor, current Republican supermajorities in the legislature have meant the chief executive is powerless to veto any bills passed by both chambers.

Democrats see an opportunity in Robinson’s weakness to finally break the veto-proof majorities that are hinge on only one seat in each chamber. Though Republicans are a clear favorite to maintain simple majorities, experts say Democrats may be able to flip one seat in each chamber and free Stein to veto Republican legislation if he is elected, though the races are closely contested, according to Fox 8 in North Carolina. 

New Hampshire

New Hampshire voters, on the other hand, are set to choose between a popular former Republican senator and a Democratic mayor to replace longtime conservative governor Chris Sununu. 

Kelly Ayotte, who served as New Hampshire’s Senator from 2011 to 2017, is currently favored to win the office even as the state increasingly trends more Democratic in national elections since 2016. Most recently, Democratic President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by about 7 points. 

Ayotte was a victim of the leftward trend when she lost her Senate seat in 2017 after one term in office to current Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. The narrow loss in a hard fought reelection came as Republican Donald Trump rose on the national stage. Trump would also lose New Hampshire in the 2016 elections, despite winning enough electoral votes to become president. Though, Ayotte did not support Trump’s first bid for president, she endorsed him this year as she is poised to win the state. 

Ayotte’s opponent, Joyce Craig, is the Democratic mayor of the state’s most populous city, Manchester. Her first elected position was as a school board member for the city. Craig previously lost a bid for mayor narrowly in 2015.