Cook Political Report shifts Pennsylvania Senate race from 'lean Democrat' to 'toss up'

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Monday shifted a key Senate race from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," showing declining support for incumbent Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey in his match against Republican Dave McCormick.

The shift comes just over two weeks before the general election, where other swing-state Senate races have also been labeled "toss-up." The Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin races all bear the same label. 

Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor credited the label change to recent polling pushing Casey's lead within the margin-of-error. She also noted that Casey's ad on siding with former President Donald Trump on trade and tariffs could also be part of the shift.

“While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” Taylor wrote. 

“Though many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey, this race is now close enough that it belongs more in the Toss Up column than in Lean Democrat alongside Arizona and Nevada, which have clearly become tougher lifts for the GOP," she added.

The report also shifted a Nebraska Senate race to "lean Republican" instead of "likely Republican." 

The ratings come as Republicans aim to flip control of the Senate back into their hands. Republicans only need to flip two seats, and will likely flip at least one in West Virginia, where Gov. Jim Justice is hoping to replace incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin, who is not running for reelection. 

Misty Severi is an evening news reporter for Just The News. You can follow her on X for more coverage.