Poll: Trump leads in AZ, Lake falls behind and abortion measure likely to pass

The most recent poll of Arizona voters shows former President Donald Trump is leading in the presidential election, and Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego pulling away from Kari Lake in the U.S. Senate race.

With the poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights having a margin of error of ±3.5% and swaying Independent voters, Arizona will prove to be full of close races come Nov. 5.

“Arizona’s competitive landscape speaks to the importance of every voter,” said NPI Founder and CEO Mike Noble. “This election will hinge on which candidates can best capture the Independent and undecided voters who can tip the scales in either direction. The stakes are high, and Arizona’s role as a swing state will keep all eyes here through the final vote count.”

According to the poll, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by only one point (48%-47%), and when unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, that margin stayed the same. The polling report also stressed the significance of party loyalty and opinions of Independent and undecided voters.

In the presidential election, Harris has the approval of 90% of Democrats and Trump has 87% of Republicans. And when pushed to make a decision, 42% of Independent and undecided voters chose Trump and 50% said they support Harris.

“Arizona is a unique state – home to a strong MAGA base, a real segment of McCain moderates, true blue Democrats, and a healthy number of swing voters,” Noble said. “This mix of voters can elect Democrats or Republicans. But we believe that Trump has the edge. By registration, the GOP is the largest party – so Trump doesn’t need full party loyalty to win. He needs enough Republicans and enough Independents to stay ahead of a unified Democratic Party. Right now, he has just that.”

While still close, Gallego is ahead of Trump-endorsed Kari Lake by four points with 48% to Lake’s 44%. The report attributes this to less Republican loyalty towards Lake than Trump, with Lake having support from 82% of Republicans. Additionally, Gallego has a higher approval rate among Independents than Harris at 14 points over Lake.

“Lake has always had two problems,” Noble said. “Republicans trust her less than they trust Trump, and a small group of Independents who are willing to vote for Trump and Gallego. Our polls have consistently found Trump and Gallego ahead. As Trump voters have come home to Lake, the gap has become smaller – but there’s still a gap. If Trump gains in the final stretch and beats his polls, he could pull Lake across the finish line. But our data shows that the most likely outcome is a split decision in favor of Trump and Gallego.”

The NPI poll also looked at how voters would vote on Prop. 139 which would put a right to abortion access up until fetal viability and after with a doctor-determined threat to the physical and mental health of the woman in the Arizona Constitution.

The poll found that Prop. 139 is likely to pass with 57% of likely Arizona voters supporting the ballot measure and only 7% undecided. The report concludes that this is due to the “sizable chunk” of Republicans who also favor abortion rights.

“This is a classic wedge issue,” said David Byler, NPI chief of research. “Democrats are united. Independents lean heavily pro-choice. And Republicans are divided.”

This poll was conducted from Oct. 28-30, polling 775 likely voters in Arizona.