Hispanics increasingly voting Republican in Florida, Miami-Dade County

The trend of more Hispanics voting Republican in Florida continues this election cycle after records were broken in 2022. A new poll also shows that the greatest number of Cuban Americans in recorded history say they are voting for former President Donald Trump.

Increasing Hispanic support for Republicans continues after a red wave swept through Florida, ushering Gov. Ron DeSantis into his second term in 2022. DeSantis not only defeated his Democratic challenger by 16 points, the largest margin of any gubernatorial race in 40 years, but built momentum that flipped several counties from blue to red. Included among them was Miami-Dade County, the largest county in Florida with a 70% Hispanic population.

Under DeSantis, blue counties flipped red, Democratic elected officials endorsed him, and registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats by more than one million.

When announcing the one million registered voter divide this summer, DeSantis said, “Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 – and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history. Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought possible."

Prior to DeSantis’ 2022 win, the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Miami-Dade County was in 2002, The Center Square reported. DeSantis lost the county in 2018.

“The trend line in Florida is undeniable. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County by over 290,000 votes. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the county, but by only 85,000 votes. In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in 20 years to win Miami-Dade County,” The Tampa Bay Times reported.

This election, during early voting, more Republicans have already voted than Democrats in Miami-Dade County, according to state election data. When it comes to voting by mail, more Democrats in the county have cast their ballots by mail than Republicans have, according to the data.

The biggest benchmark, researchers in South Florida note, is that 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Florida say they are voting for Trump. This is up from 35% in 2016, and 59% in 2020, according to the latest poll conducted by the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. Roughly 23% said they are voting for Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, 50% of Cuban Americans polled said they are voting for incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, a Republican and Florida’s former governor; 19% said they are voting for his challenger, Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott also has roughly double the support of Independent Cuban American voters than she has, according to the poll.

“Most of the Cuban Americans in the United States live in Florida, and most of the Cuban Americans in Florida reside in the South Florida region,” FIU notes. “As a result, Cuban Americans make up a miniscule percentage of the national population but dominate the demographic landscape of Miami-Dade County. Their overwhelming presence in Florida makes their political involvement critically important, particularly during presidential election years.”

Roughly 54% of Cuban Americans in Florida are registered Republicans. Those who were born in Cuba and are older tend to be more conservative and Republican. Those who weren’t born in Cuba and are younger are evenly split among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, according to FIU data.

The biggest issue among those polled is the economy and inflation, according to FIU. The majority argue the country is heading in the wrong direction and give President Joe Biden a 27% approval rating on his job handling the economy and inflation, according to the poll.

Statewide, the concerns are similar among all Florida Hispanics, according to a UnidosUS and Mi Familia Vote poll. The top three issues of concern are inflation/rising cost of living, jobs and the economy, and lack of affordable housing.

In 2020, Florida Hispanic voters represented the greatest percentage of Hispanic voters by state who voted for Trump, according to the Latino Public Policy Foundation. Of seven states evaluated, 47% of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Trump in Florida, followed by 40% in Texas and 35% in Colorado, according to the data.

More than 1.9 million Floridians have voted early in person, more than 1.9 million voted by mail and more than 1.56 million received their ballot by mail but it hasn’t been returned, according to state election data.

Early voting is underway through Nov. 2. Election Day is Nov. 5.