Pre-election jobs report unmasks Biden-Harris trend: private sector slows while government grows

The final employment statistics released before Tuesday's election not only soured economists, it exposed an unmistakable trajectory of the Biden-Harris economy: private sector jobs are slowing while government work keeps growing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday disclosed the U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, well below the expected gain of 100,000.

While public sector employment kept humming, manufacturing and service sector jobs plummeted in a blow to Vice President Kamala Harris' efforts to sell her economic vision to undecided voters. In addition, the agency reported it also deducted 100,000 jobs from the prior month's tally.

“This was a really, really bad report,” economist and former Trump advisor Stephen Moore told the John Solomon Reports podcast. 

“When you look at the revisions from previous months, you know, we lost 100,000 jobs. So that's number one,  that is including the jobs created in October, minus the jobs that they overestimated from previous months, it's 100,000 lower than we thought,” Moore said. “Second of all, the private sector, the overall job level was 12,000. That is the worst jobs report we have had in three and a half years.” 

Trump's campaign immediately seized on the news as it barnstormed battleground states during the final weekend of the 2024 election.

"This jobs report is a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy," the campaign wrote in a statement. "In a single month, Kamala’s failed economic agenda wiped out nearly 30,000 private sector jobs and nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs.

"Working families are being ripped off by the Harris-Biden economic agenda. Kamala broke the economy. President Trump will fix it," it added.

Harris has worked to improve her image on the economy, promising she can better fix problems voters care about than her opponent. Her surrogates tried to put a positive spin on Friday's numbers, suggesting it a temporary blip from strikes and hurricanes and that overall jobs keep growing.

Harris herself was more matter of fact.

"We have hard work ahead of us, but we know hard work is good work," Harris wrote on X. "With your help this November, we will win."

The steady increase in government hiring while other industries lag behind is a hallmark trend in recent Biden administration jobs reports. Financial analysts have previously raised concerns about this pattern of job growth, warning that it could be unsustainable in the long term. 

The newest jobs numbers show the largest job losses occurred in the private sector—primarily in manufacturing and other business services—which are counteracted by strong hiring in the government and healthcare sectors. 

“If you take out government jobs that were created, then the economy actually lost jobs,” Moore explained. “So it's hard to put any positive spin whatsoever on this report.” 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the manufacturing sector lost 46,000 in October. General business services saw a slightly larger decrease at 47,000 fewer jobs than September. Most other private industries besides healthcare posted net job loses or were found have no change from the month prior, except construction which registered a slight but minimal increase. 

The bureau noted that pressures from the aftermath of dual hurricane impacts from Helene and Milton could affect some industries but that it would have little impact on the overall unemployment rate. Strikes at Boeing may have also fueled the decline in manufacturing jobs, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

After a stronger than expected jobs report earlier this year, one economist told Fox Business that the role of government jobs in inflating the numbers may be a cause for concern. 

"It’s a little bit disconcerting when you see the fact that job growth is in sectors that are not necessarily your productive sectors," Jeffrey Roach, economist for LPL Financial, told the outlet. 

"You never want to see the government be the major engine for hiring," Roach said. "They are quick to furlough, so it can kind of go both ways. You may see this massive rebound in hiring, but once there’s a slow patch, you might see a reversal of that trend.”

The trend of strong hiring in the government sector has appeared to endure for the second year. In 2023, almost 25% of all job gains under the Biden administration were for government jobs. 

The jobs numbers came on the heels of two other negative economic indicators this week that cut against predictions: higher than expected inflation and lower than expected GDP growth. 

The jobs numbers also came on the heels of an announcement for another metric that has become a focus of both campaigns: inflation. 

On Thursday, the government reported that the measurement for core inflation rose, posting its biggest increase since April and outstripping forecasts from economists.

Inflation has remained an important election issue and has colored the national conversation about the economy during the Biden administration, which saw the rate of inflation climb to a high of 9.1% in June 2022, up from 1.4% at the end of the Trump administration. 

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a lower pace than the 3.1% estimate. The growth, even though lower than anticipated, was driven by strong consumer spending. But the department also cited federal government spending, which rose 9.7%, as a factor for the growth. 

“We're growing the economy in the exact areas we don’t—we want the government to be contracting because we're running a $2 trillion deficit,” Moore said. "So we should be shedding jobs in government, and we want to be adding jobs in the private sector. What we're doing under much of, you know, Biden's presidency is exactly the opposite.”

The Harris campaign did not respond to an inquiry seeking comment on the jobs numbers. The White House said that despite “the devastation from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and new strike activity” lowering job growth, that “America’s economy remains strong.”