Polls mixed on Kari Lake Senate bid as she enters possible three-way race

Conservative firebrand Kari Lake will officially announce her entry into the Arizona Senate race on Tuesday evening, setting up a potential three-way contest with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema that recent polling suggests will be a nail-biter.

Sinema, for her part, has not announced her reelection plans. Her departure from the Democrats in December of last year, however, has opened the door to Gallego's campaign, which is the only significant force in the party primary. The GOP race, however, is more crowded, with Sheriff Mark Lamb, consultant George Nicholson, and engineer Brian Wright already declared. Former Arizona GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters has also expressed interest in a run.

Should Lake clear the first hurdle, however, she would be within striking distance of claiming the Senate seat. One National Research Inc. survey published Tuesday by the Washington Examiner, shows her claiming 37% support among likely voters in a three-way contest, with Gallego claiming 33%, and Sinema earning 19%.

In the event of Sinema's absence from the race, however, the same survey shows a tied contest, with Lake and Gallego each receiving 44% support.

Conducted Oct. 7-9, the survey questioned 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

A separate survey from the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling (PPP) published by The Hill suggests Lake may face stiffer odds against Gallego, even in a three-way contest. In a matchup including Sinema, Gallego leads with 41% support to Lake's 36%. Sinema trails with 15%. In a two-way contest, Gallego leads 48% to 43%.

Conducted Oct. 6-7, the survey questioned 522 Arizona voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

The seat is likely to be among the most contested in the 2024 cycle.

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter.